Hillary Hasn't a Ghost of a Chance of Being Elected President

Bill and Hillary remind me of the fleshing eating zombies you might see from a drive-in horror flick; just when you think they are politically dead and buried they return to haunt you. Hillary has always been the Republican’s worst nightmare, but now she is becoming the Democratic Party’s worst nightmare. That’s because she cannot possibly win the Democratic nomination without destroying the Party and dooming its chances in the November election against John McCain. After all, there’s no realistic way she can catch Obama in the pledged delegate count, so her only way to win is to use the so-called super delegates to overturn the will of the majority of Democratic voters. If she does that she’s sure to alienate the constituencies that support Obama (the young, African Americans, and anti-war voters).

Republicans represent close to 40% of the electorate. When you add potentially disenchanted Obama supporters to the four out of ten voters that detest Hillary no matter what she does, then you realize Hillary has little upside and little margin for error. At best, Hilary could hope to win a squeaker against McCain, but in all likelihood independents, late deciders, and disaffected Democrats would probably break for the authentic-seeming senator from Arizona.

As a candidate Hillary has displayed some rather disconcerting qualities; she tends to do well when she goes negative or gets in a whining and self-pitying mode. Her last minute attacks before the Texas and Ohio primaries consisted largely of scurrilous charges. Guilt by association, innuendo regarding Obama’s faith, hearsay regarding Obama’s stance on NAFTA amounted to mudslinging. Put, simply, the Clinton campaign showed no regard for the truth; their only concern was to sully Obama’s image in the minds of the least educated late-deciders (who broke for Clinton almost 2 to 1).

All may be fair in love, war, and politics, but I’m a progressive that’s pretty much disgusted with Hillary. I see her as a triangulating politician, one who displayed abysmal judgement on the Iraq War, but who now uses slogans (“If I knew then what I know now”) to cloak the fact that she did not exercise or display due diligence and wisdom when it came to the most important decision of her political career. Put simply, Al Gore and Barack Obama are the only major figures in the Democratic Party with the courage and sagacity to oppose the Iraq War from the beginning. Both men did not simply give speeches, they spelled out their reasons for opposing the war in detail. And their judgement has proven prescient.

Barack Obama is not merely an inspirational leader. Listening to his stump speech recently I came away with the distinct impression that he is the most substantive politician the country has seen in a long time. This is a leader with a deep understanding of how the challenges America faces are interconnected, how the threat of terrorism, our energy habits, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and global warming are all tied together. Further, he has a vision of how the United States can restore its standing in the world. America is at it best and most persuasive, Obama understands, when we lead by example rather than through force.

Obama is a great communicator because he is a great listener. This is a quality the world is hoping America rediscovers. The Europeans and our other allies are looking to America to lead on a range of issues, such as nuclear non-proliferation, but they are looking for an America that listens to their views and concerns. To lead one must persuade, not just dictate, a lesson completely lost on the Bush administration. Obama is incredibly persuasive because he connects the dots and explains how if we all work together we can accomplish particular goals. His is a bottom-up approach, whereas Hillary (and George Bush) employs a top-down style. With a bottom-up approach, however, more people are invested in your success, which makes for a durable foundation for building social change and achieving national aims.

The Bush administration’s essential irrationality – it’s congenital inability to proffer cogent arguments (its reliance on cliches, false-choices, and ad hoc rationalizations) undermined the aims it pursued. Put simply, the sophistry employed during Bush vs. Gore, the demagoguery deployed in the lead up to the Iraq War, and the rationalizations used to justify torture, illegal wiretapping, and other Constitutional abuses have so eroded the Bush administration’s credibility that it has little public support left.

If Hillary Clinton takes a scorched-earth approach to the Democratic nomination – insisting the super-delegates anoint her even if she is behind in pledged delegates, states won, and the popular vote – she will in fact be emulating the modus operandi of George W. Bush. I can’t help but feel that Hillary’s dipping into the Rove playbook -- playing the fear card -- is a bad omen. At this point I don’t believe Hillary can win the top spot without getting ugly, and if she goes that route she’ll very likely doom the Democrats in November.

Sphere: Related Content