Bush's Strategic Stupidity

George Bush’s tenure is turning out to be a tragedy for the United States. Most Americans, by now, are at least dimly aware that Bush is leading the country in the wrong direction, but only as small percentage recognizes how this accidental president has tipped the United States towards a precipitous and probably irreversible decline. Put simply, through a mix of arrogance and obtuseness, Bush has managed to enmesh the United States in a series of vicious cycles that are steadily eroding America’s vitality. If the present tends continue, historians will almost certainly correlate Bush’s ascension to the White House with America’s 21st century decline.

A vicious cycle is a self-defeating pattern where bad habits lead to deleterious outcomes, which tend to reinforce bad habits that lead to even worse outcomes. For instance, imagine a drunk who drinks because he is poor; the more he drinks the poorer he gets, which leads him to drink even more, which only worsens his condition. The United States, courtesy George W. Bush, is enacting similar self-defeating behaviors on a number of fronts.

America’s energy habits are at the heart of several interrelated vicious cycles: 1) global warming, 2) terrorism, and 3) Iraq. For example, America’s voracious appetite for fossil fuels is spewing carbon into the atmosphere, which causes the planet to heat up, which is increasing the potential for ecological catastrophes, which will ultimately threaten the prosperity, stability, and future of civilization itself.

The high demand for fossil fuels has another consequence: high oil prices mean more money for jihadists and anti-American forces. Indeed, as Thomas Friedman notes in what he calls the First Law of Petro-politics: the higher the price of oil, the slower the pace of reform in the Middle East. This is because mullahs, clerics, and dictators flush with petro-dollars can afford to forgo economic development and thwart political and cultural reforms.

The West’s need for cheap oil, of course, is a large reason for America’s presence in Iraq. The U.S. invasion of Iraq was supposed to break the back of OPEC, thus driving down the price of oil to the $15-$20 region, which would have rescued America’s ailing automakers (which can’t sell as many gas guzzlers when oil is expensive). Instead, the botched occupation in Iraq has helped drive oil prices to new highs (and high oil prices benefit American adversaries like Iran).
So, the Bush administration overacted to a threat that didn’t exist (Saddam’s alleged WMD) and failed to act to a real and growing threat (global warming). And the steps it has taken have only compounded the challenges America faces. Most ironically, however, the United States is mortgaging its future by borrowing money from China so that we can continue to buy oil from the Middle East, which only increases the blowback we’ll face from terrorism and global warming. In other words, we are burdening future generations with debt that pays for the foolish and selfish choices the Bush administration is making today.

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