The State of Emergency in Pakistan

“The world is safer without Saddam Hussein” is one of those statements that sounds meaningful, but is actually vacuous nonsense. Is it safer for most Iraqis? Is the threat of global warming accelerating? Are Islamic radicals closer to getting their hands on WMD, perhaps by overturning Pakistan’s shaky government? There are hundreds of question like these one can ask, but most of the answers are unknowable. There are too many “known unknowns,” as the snow flakey former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might say.

One thing we do know, however, is that Pakistan -- a pillar of the Bush administration counterterrorism strategy – is crumbling. The recent assassination attempt against Benazir Bhutto, and a state of emergency called by President Musharaff, are indicative of the kind of chaos the country is in. The administration may claim Iraq is making progress, and that this will be a huge setback for the terrorists. But while Iraq has garnered the headlines, Pakistan has arguably become the true front on the war on terror (and to say that we’ve been losing ground in Pakistan would be an understatement).

In a nutshell, the problem with the Bush administration’s approach to Pakistan is that they’ve put all their eggs in Musharaff’s basket. This follows from Bush’s “great man” theory of leadership, the notion that a single individual can turn the tide of history. No doubt, Bush sees himself as a decisive actor, the kind of leader who through force of character and willpower shapes the world’s destiny for the better. It remains to be seen, of course, what verdict History will render regarding Bush: deluded fool or visionary statesman?

It is becoming clear however, that Bush’s destiny increasingly depends on Musharaff’s. The Pakistani general has declared martial law, he is moving to silence journalists and opposition leaders, and he has quarantined the country’s Supreme Court until they ratify his power grab. Whether this will help stabilize or further radicalize Pakistan remains to be seen. It is a test of Bush’s theory of leadership: namely, that great statesmen are a law unto themselves. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal hangs in the balance. Are you feeling safer?

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